Tourney Tips Monday?
OK, welcome to another instalment of our Tournament Tips column. You may remember that last week we discussed strategy for the final table assuming a reasonable stack size and a good chance to take the crown.
Well, we round off the series with a look at what to do if you are a titch residing in places 8-10.
The bad news – you are odds against and you are going to be bullied. You'll need a combination of well timed cards, balanced decisions and mistakes by your fellow small-fry to stand a chance of moving up the places.
Luckily, the stresses of a long tournament and the unique game play of the final table usually produces plenty of mistakes. Have a look at the prize structure for the top ten – there is usually a significant difference between every place – in the larger events this can be a few thousand dollars. Often, a weak stack will be so desperate to avoid being eaten alive by the blinds that he will rush head-long into a better hand. If that happens and he is eliminated, that is more cash for you. Sometimes, all you have to do is wait.
However, there is no guarantee that will happen and, even if it does, it can only take you so far – count yourself blessed if you manage to make 2 or more places that way – so, how do you give yourself the best chance of a climb?
The first thing may be painfully obvious – you should almost never call a pre-flop raise – either fold or go all-in. Why create a further decision? Moreover, most pre-flop raises will take 50-70% of your stack and your only chance is a double-through.
The only time it might be worth flat-calling a raise is if you land pocket kings or aces in early to mid position. That is a decision to be made in battle. In the 'for' column is that you have landed a monster and might want to trap players; but in the 'against' column is that every additional player lowers your chance of winning the pot. We think the debits out-weigh the merits but it depends on your goals. If you take the pot with 3 or more players, you have a better chance of winning the tournament as well as a higher chance of falling through the trap-door.
So, when do you go all-in?
Previous weeks have mentioned all-in hand selections and nothing changes at the final table apart from timing. Although it is tempting to steal the blinds, it is important to have a hand that, if you are called, has a chance of winning. If you try it against the bigger stacks, your minimum requirement is two live cards.
Target the small to mid stacks – remember, the latter group may have settled for 6th and therefore reluctant to tussle with a player who could relegate them to 8th.
In most cases, it is better to make the first move and push – consider this example – you have AT in 7th place. If you are first to bet, it is a probable all-in. However, if the player in seat 4 bets enough to put you in, it is a fold: you always need a better hand to call a bet than you do to open.
The most important thing for you to accept is: you'll have to be lucky. Unless you find yourself with an over-pair, it will be a hairy ride: KK against Ax only wins roughly 70% of the time. In a lot of cases, you will be involved in a coin-flip. It is part of the game.
If you do manage to double up, check your new place and act accordingly: 5th of 9 gives you a bit of swagger; 4th of 5 may earn you more but has little effect on tactics. Ideally, you will find yourself in a position to adopt the strategies suggested in last week's column.
Next week we will deal with the ideal situation – you are in the final 3.
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